1st cyclonic storm post-monsoon likely to develop over Bay of Bengal by weekend

 

Ananda Kumar Das, IMD’s cyclone monitoring division in charge, said cyclones in the post-monsoon season have been more severe over the last 20 years

The first cyclonic storm post-monsoon is likely to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal around the weekend and is expected to impact the north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal coasts even as its landfall location was unclear yet, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. Once formed, the cyclone will be named Sitrang.

Ananda Kumar Das, IMD’s cyclone monitoring division in charge, said cyclones in the post-monsoon season have been more severe over the last 20 years than those in the pre-monsoon season. “So, we are expecting this system also to intensify further.”

A low-pressure area was likely to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by Saturday morning over Central Bay of Bengal. It was very likely to intensify into a cyclone over the westcentral Bay of Bengal subsequently, IMD said.

Das said there is a lot of divergence among models at the moment over the location of the cyclone. “...but most of them are indicating that the location is likely to be between north Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal coasts. It is expected to make landfall on October 25 [Tuesday] but as of today [Tuesday] we are not forecasting any location for landfall because the system has not developed yet.”

Das said the atmospheric and oceanic conditions were favourable for cyclone development. “The sea surface temperature over the Bay is also higher than normal. Moreover, this system will be moving over the ocean from October 22 to 25 which can give it a lot of energy.”

Conditions were separately likely to become favourable for further withdrawal of the monsoon from more parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, interior Odisha, and the entire West Bengal while isolated heavy rainfall was likely to continue in some areas parts of south Peninsular this week.